For those interested, the other big regional that is approximately insolvent by my estimate if you adjust for losses on HtM securities is Bank of Hawaii. But obviously that's a very different deposit base from SIVB and so a lot less likely to trigger a firesale of HtM securities. Still, though, should be trading half to a third the level it is. Same with Truist, but a little less bad. By my estimate, they'd have 2.5% TCE/A ratio if they took MtM losses on HtM securities.
A fair number of people have been banging the drum on losses in securities categorized as hold to maturity. SIVB isn't a bank I generally follow but Chris Whalen has been talking for a while now about how it would be insolvent if HtM had to be marked to market. Schwab has some serious losses to take here too, but the earnings increase on $50B of customer free credit balances held in the reserve account more than offsets it, in my opinion, as it won't be a one time event.
Not sure I understand the bear case on NYCB put forward by Edwin Dorsey.
I don't think he's posted anything new, has he? He published a lengthy and informative report on crypto banks last year that mentioned NYCB in passing but there was no information specific to the bank except that it had had crypto deposits.
Crypto deposits seem incredibly irrelevant and immaterial to NYCB. Also, I'd point out that NYCB's entire $9B securities portfolio is available for sale, not HtM. I bought shares today with a 7 handle.
For those interested, the other big regional that is approximately insolvent by my estimate if you adjust for losses on HtM securities is Bank of Hawaii. But obviously that's a very different deposit base from SIVB and so a lot less likely to trigger a firesale of HtM securities. Still, though, should be trading half to a third the level it is. Same with Truist, but a little less bad. By my estimate, they'd have 2.5% TCE/A ratio if they took MtM losses on HtM securities.
A fair number of people have been banging the drum on losses in securities categorized as hold to maturity. SIVB isn't a bank I generally follow but Chris Whalen has been talking for a while now about how it would be insolvent if HtM had to be marked to market. Schwab has some serious losses to take here too, but the earnings increase on $50B of customer free credit balances held in the reserve account more than offsets it, in my opinion, as it won't be a one time event.
Not sure I understand the bear case on NYCB put forward by Edwin Dorsey.
I don't think he's posted anything new, has he? He published a lengthy and informative report on crypto banks last year that mentioned NYCB in passing but there was no information specific to the bank except that it had had crypto deposits.
Not to my knowledge, but seems to be crowing about it.
https://twitter.com/StockJabber/status/1631351363555713035
Crypto deposits seem incredibly irrelevant and immaterial to NYCB. Also, I'd point out that NYCB's entire $9B securities portfolio is available for sale, not HtM. I bought shares today with a 7 handle.
I was curious why it seems like NYCB has been getting nuked worse than others. I will have to check on his thesis. Thank you