Thank you Ian - great overview. Do the airport stocks still screen as cheaply on other metrics (eg P/E, P/FCF) on a historical basis, and in MXN terms instead of USD?
The Mexican Peso has been around 20:1 to the Dollar, + or - 15%, since 2016. Given the stability, FX fluctuations haven't impacted valuation too much. If the Peso suddenly moved 50%, that would be a different matter, but as long as it stays around the same prices its been for the past decade, it won't move the needle too much. For what it's worth, my personal view is the Peso should be around 18 now and it's slightly cheap here, we'll see.
Looking at OMAB now, wondering why OMAB traded at a premium EBITDA multiple in 2015, last 10 years it traded at a 2x ebitda discount omab to pac. thx for the input
Ian soy un nuevo usuario en Colombia. Para el portafolio de mi hija me gusta mucho $PAC creo que en el largo plazo es lo mas balanceado, Lastima que no lei esto antes pero pienso entrar con una posicion de 1/3 del tamaño con el precio actual y esperar una correccion para seguir poniendo los recursos a trabajar
Thanks Ian. Hypothetically if one was to invest $100 today in the Mexican stocks how would you allocate that between Airports ,stock exchange , rotaplas and Alsea ? Thanks
Would depend on what else I owned. If I had big positions in Boeing/Airbus, Raytheon, GE, Transdigm, or other such aerospace companies, I'd size the airports smaller. Similarly, if I had a big position in DPZ or SBUX, I might skip Alsea. Me personally, I've owned airports the longest of any Mexican stock, and they (OMAB/PAC) are my largest holding overall whereas the others you named are smaller positions.
Thank You for writing this, it was exactly what I needed to know, and some excellent analysis re omab and pac.
Hi Ian. This post is Gold! Thanks. I am New subscriber, wherer I can see your updated portoflio?
Thank you Ian - great overview. Do the airport stocks still screen as cheaply on other metrics (eg P/E, P/FCF) on a historical basis, and in MXN terms instead of USD?
The Mexican Peso has been around 20:1 to the Dollar, + or - 15%, since 2016. Given the stability, FX fluctuations haven't impacted valuation too much. If the Peso suddenly moved 50%, that would be a different matter, but as long as it stays around the same prices its been for the past decade, it won't move the needle too much. For what it's worth, my personal view is the Peso should be around 18 now and it's slightly cheap here, we'll see.
Looking at OMAB now, wondering why OMAB traded at a premium EBITDA multiple in 2015, last 10 years it traded at a 2x ebitda discount omab to pac. thx for the input
Ian soy un nuevo usuario en Colombia. Para el portafolio de mi hija me gusta mucho $PAC creo que en el largo plazo es lo mas balanceado, Lastima que no lei esto antes pero pienso entrar con una posicion de 1/3 del tamaño con el precio actual y esperar una correccion para seguir poniendo los recursos a trabajar
Thanks Ian. Hypothetically if one was to invest $100 today in the Mexican stocks how would you allocate that between Airports ,stock exchange , rotaplas and Alsea ? Thanks
Would depend on what else I owned. If I had big positions in Boeing/Airbus, Raytheon, GE, Transdigm, or other such aerospace companies, I'd size the airports smaller. Similarly, if I had a big position in DPZ or SBUX, I might skip Alsea. Me personally, I've owned airports the longest of any Mexican stock, and they (OMAB/PAC) are my largest holding overall whereas the others you named are smaller positions.